The most important part of a government is that those with the keys to power are supporting the would be leader. I doubt it will be good. Oil makes up a large part of their income. The army is paid by the oil sales so unless oil sales drop there will be no change in power. Basically the army is the only thing keeping order in a sense. I give it a 60 percent to turn violent, 30 a foreign power comes in and does something, 10 percent chance of a peaces transfer of power.