#LoAndBehold #UnlessTheReportedNumbersAreWrong #16.3vs13.3
Call:
Big Error on Jobs Forecast Could Have Policy Ramifications
"What makes this forecasting error so historic is more than the magnitude of the miss on the two widely reported and followed headline numbers: net jobs created, where the consensus expectation was off by an astounding 10 million, and the unemployment rate, off by some 6 percentage points, or what Wall Streeters like to call “six big figures.” In addition, economists and Wall Street analysts were uniformly wrong on the direction of the move, forecasting deterioration when the vast majority of the reported numbers pointed to a uniform improvement. The homogeneity of the miss was also notable as not one of the 78 economists surveyed by Bloomberg came close to the actual number. For example, the most optimistic projection for payrolls was a decline of 800,000; the actual number was an increase of 2.5 million."
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...forecast-miss-could-have-policy-ramifications
Response:
"The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May. But that would still be an improvement from an unemployment rate of about 19.7 percent for April, applying the same standards."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/05/may-2020-jobs-report-misclassification-error/
Call:
Big Error on Jobs Forecast Could Have Policy Ramifications
"What makes this forecasting error so historic is more than the magnitude of the miss on the two widely reported and followed headline numbers: net jobs created, where the consensus expectation was off by an astounding 10 million, and the unemployment rate, off by some 6 percentage points, or what Wall Streeters like to call “six big figures.” In addition, economists and Wall Street analysts were uniformly wrong on the direction of the move, forecasting deterioration when the vast majority of the reported numbers pointed to a uniform improvement. The homogeneity of the miss was also notable as not one of the 78 economists surveyed by Bloomberg came close to the actual number. For example, the most optimistic projection for payrolls was a decline of 800,000; the actual number was an increase of 2.5 million."
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...forecast-miss-could-have-policy-ramifications
Response:
"The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May. But that would still be an improvement from an unemployment rate of about 19.7 percent for April, applying the same standards."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/05/may-2020-jobs-report-misclassification-error/
